Overview of the Incident
On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E-190, registered as 4K-AZ65, tragically crashed while attempting an emergency landing near Aktau International Airport, Kazakhstan. The scheduled flight J2-8243 had departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, bound for Grozny, Russia, but encountered critical issues that led to its diversion. The disaster resulted in the loss of all crew members, including the captain, co-pilot, and a senior flight attendant, alongside 35 passengers. The aircraft was carrying 60 adults and two children in total.
Initial Findings from the Preliminary Report
The Ministry of Digital Development and Transport of Azerbaijan released a preliminary 53-page report on February 4, 2025, which suggested that external objects penetrating the aircraft were the likely cause of the crash. The report detailed the discovery of damage on the aircraft’s fuselage, particularly concentrated towards the rear, with multiple puncture holes visible on the port side of the tail section. The nature of the damage was consistent with shrapnel impacts, which are typically associated with anti-aircraft missile engagements.
Investigation into Missile Involvement
The type of damage indicated in the report aligns with the known effects of shrapnel from an anti-aircraft missile’s warhead, designed to explode near the target, dispersing metal fragments at high velocity to incapacitate the aircraft. Confirming suspicions, the Kremlin acknowledged that Russian air defenses were active on the day of the crash, and fragments of a Pantsir-S missile system were reportedly recovered from the wreckage. This crucial piece of evidence points to a possible accidental shootdown during heightened military alertness or operational error.
Aircraft Condition and Flight Troubles
Prior to the incident, the Embraer E-190 was confirmed to be fully airworthy, with operational flight control systems as verified by the Flight Data Recorder (FDR). Both engines were also reported to be functioning normally up until the crash. The aircraft experienced difficulties with GPS signals while traversing Russian airspace, which persisted over Kadyrov Grozny International Airport. Adverse weather conditions led to two failed landing attempts in Grozny, prompting the decision to return to Baku.
Critical Moments Leading to the Crash
Analysis of the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) and FDR data revealed that the aircraft’s hydraulic systems failed sequentially within a matter of seconds following audible external noises, captured by the CVR. These system failures critically disabled the aircraft’s control capabilities, leading to its eventual crash. The rapid sequence of system failures highlights the severe impact of the external forces on the aircraft’s operational integrity.
Next Steps in the Investigation
The government of Kazakhstan has committed to completing a comprehensive final report by December 2025, one year from the date of the accident. This report is expected to provide a detailed analysis of the crash, contributing factors, and potentially actionable safety measures to prevent future incidents of a similar nature.