A Detailed Report on the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J28243 Crash
On December 25, 2024, a catastrophic incident occurred involving an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E-190, registered as 4K-AZ65. The aircraft was en route from Baku-Heydar Aliyev International Airport (GYD) to Grozny Airport (GRV), Russia, carrying 62 passengers and five crew members. Due to heavy fog conditions in Grozny, the flight was diverted to Uytash Airport (MCX) in Makhachkala, Russia. Unfortunately, the aircraft never reached its destination, crashing in western Kazakhstan and resulting in significant loss of life and injuries.
Flight J28243 was last detected on ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast) over the Caspian Sea at an altitude of 9,144 meters at 08:40 local time. After disappearing from radar, it was next spotted near the coast of Kazakhstan around 10:07, where it circled near Aktau before crashing at 10:28 local time. This tragic event resulted in the deaths of 38 individuals, including both pilots, and left 29 survivors, with 10 in critical condition.
The passengers comprised 37 Azerbaijani citizens, six Kazakh citizens, three Kyrgyz citizens, and 16 Russian citizens. In response to this disaster, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared December 26, 2024, a national day of mourning.
Cause of the Crash and Ongoing Investigations
The specific cause of the crash of Flight J28243 remains under investigation. Initial theories proposed a collision with a flock of birds, though this has been retracted. An alternative and alarming theory emerged following reports from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health about an explosion on board. Suspicions intensified when Kazakhstan’s transport prosecutor, Timur Suleimenov, announced that flight data recorders had been recovered, hinting at possible answers soon.
Further complicating the investigation are unconfirmed reports and images suggesting that the aircraft might have been hit by an anti-aircraft missile. The evidence points to visible damage on the wreckage consistent with shrapnel impacts typical of an anti-aircraft missile’s explosion. Such an event would involve the missile detonating near the target, dispersing shrapnel designed to incapacitate the aircraft by damaging critical systems indirectly.
Comparisons are being drawn to the downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 in January 2020, where a Boeing 737 was mistakenly shot down by an Iranian air defense system amidst heightened military tensions. This historical precedent underscores the potential for tragic errors in regions experiencing military activities. The presence of drone activities and heightened alerts in Grozny hours before the flight raises the possibility that the incident was a grave misidentification similar to the Flight 752 downing.
Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended flights between Baku, Grozny, and Makhachkala pending a thorough investigation. The international aviation community watches closely as the investigations proceed, hoping for clarity and measures to prevent such incidents in the future.